When the Winds Shift

In March 2026, I had the privilege of being able to visit the island of Maui and the big island of Hawai’i as part of my Geology of Hawai’i field course. In total, we were there for 10 days, and had incredible adventures such as visiting the peak of the Haleakalā volcano, hiking into the Halemaʻumaʻu crater, and venturing into the Kaūmana lava tube caves. We also learned firsthand the human impacts of natural disasters through a visit to Fissure 8, where thousands lost their homes to lava flows during the 2018 Kilauea volcano eruption.

However, the activities of our trip were cut short because of a massive storm–called a Kona low storm–that hit the islands, bringing heavy rain and strong winds that knocked out the power in the town we were staying in for the last two days of our trip (and for almost a week after we left)!

A Kona low storm is a type of subtropical cyclone that forms when an imbalance in the atmosphere intensifies into a low pressure circulation system centered west/northwest of the islands (a “Kona low”). Because this weather system is “cutoff” from normal trade winds, it remains stationary over the islands for longer periods of time, prolonging intense rainfall and winds. Kona lows occur one to three times a year on average, and their intensity and impacts can vary depending on atmospheric conditions.

In fact, we saw evidence of this low pressure system forming just days before the storm hit, when we were lucky enough to witness an episode of the ongoing Kīlauea eruption. We had to evacuate the park when tephra (solid volcanic material) began raining down on us, a rare event that only occurred because the Kona low shifted the normal trade wind direction to blow the debris directly onto the visitor lookouts.

When the storm matured enough, we were blanketed with near constant heavy rain and winds that shook the walls. Our power went out completely a day into the storm, and according to the owner of the inn we stayed at, it didn’t turn back on until several days after we left. For a while, the main roads from where we were staying (Volcano Village), into the nearest city (Hilo), were completely closed. Volcano Village has a population of around 700 people, and all of them, plus everyone else in neighboring towns across the island, were completely cut off from necessities such as grocery stores, gas stations, and hospitals.

At the end of the day, my classmates and I were lucky to be able to take a flight back to Durham and escape the worst impacts of the storm and flooding. Most on the islands were not.

The Kona low storm of March 2026 brought what the BBC called Hawai’i’s “worst flooding in 20 years”. Many parts of the islands received 5-10 inches of rain, shattering single day rainfall records, with some regions receiving up to 30 inches. Around 19,000 properties across all of the islands sustained damages, and over 200 people were rescued after going missing during the floods. Shortly after we left, a second low pressure system created another storm, and although this one was not as powerful as the first, intense flooding still occurred as the ground was still heavily saturated.

It’s well documented that climate change will only make extreme weather events and storms like these worse. As the air warms, it’s able to hold more moisture, meaning that storms in warmer conditions are often more intense and destructive due to heavier rainfall. Warmer oceans also provide higher amounts of thermal energy, which drives storm formation and sustainment. We’ve already seen this trend widespread with an increase in the intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms.

With recent federal actions such as the cuts to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the attempt to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the understaffing of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States is pushing to strip its ability to accurately predict, plan for, and recover from natural disasters.

The 2026 Kona low storms were just one recent example of the importance of adequate emergency management systems and funding for disaster relief. It’s likely that many lives were saved by the evacuation orders that were broadcast across the islands, and, conversely, that many lives would have been lost if the orders were absent or delayed. Extreme weather events are only predicted to get worse, and our response cannot falter. In eliminating our primary warning systems, we are literally flying blind into a storm.

Scarlett Schwimmer

Scarlett Schwimmer is a rising junior at Duke University studying Earth and Climate Sciences with a certificate in Energy and the Environment. On campus, she is a Nicholas School of the Environment Climate Scholar, Project Analyst for Duke Energy and Climate Club, and researches environmental impacts on farmed oysters through a Duke Bass Connections project. Outside of the classroom, she enjoys trying new foods, hiking, and traveling. Scarlett is driven by analyzing how local communities and ecosystems adapt to a changing climate, ranging from researching closed-loop geothermal implementation to alleviate high electricity costs to investigating the biological resilience of oyster populations against shifting oceanic conditions.